Prediction Market Expert
Prediction Market Expert (AI Research) About The Role We're looking for sharp, analytically minded individuals to join a remote AI research project focused on structured forecasting and probability analysis. Your expertise in evaluating real-world events will directly help train and improve AI models that reason about uncertainty. If you follow geopolitics, financial markets, elections, sports, or major world events — and you think in probabilities — this role was made for you. Type: Hourly Contract Location: Fully Remote Commitment: Flexible hours, work on your own schedule
What You'll Do
Assess and forecast the outcomes of real-world, industry, and market events Assign well-reasoned probability estimates grounded in current events and public information Articulate your reasoning clearly and concisely in structured annotation formats Review and evaluate prediction-related data for accuracy and consistency Interpret rapidly evolving news cycles and intelligence signals Maintain high annotation quality across a range of forecasting tasks Who You Are Strong probabilistic thinker — you naturally reason in likelihoods, not just certainties Up-to-date on current events, market trends, or geopolitical developments Able to articulate your reasoning clearly in writing Detail-oriented and consistent in your analytical approach Familiar with prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus) — a plus, but not required Self-motivated and comfortable working independently in a remote environment
Nice to Have
Background in finance, economics, political science, statistics, or journalism Experience participating in forecasting tournaments or prediction platforms Familiarity with Bayesian reasoning or structured analytic techniques
Why Join Us
Work on cutting-edge AI research with real-world impact Fully remote and flexible — work when it suits you Freelance autonomy with the opportunity for ongoing contract work Contribute your unique analytical perspective to advance AI reasoning capabilities Join a global community of domain experts shaping the future of AI